AGP Executive Report

Panama Canal Drought Pricing: South Korea’s SK Gas paid a record $5.3 million for priority passage for its LPG tanker G. Spirit on Sept. 1, just before the Canal cuts daily transits due to El Niño-driven water shortages; the auction system is pushing costs sharply higher as slots tighten. Regional Business Outlook: Panama’s ambassador told Indian industry leaders that the country can act as a strategic gateway for Indian firms using the Panama Canal, logistics ecosystem, and Colón Free Zone to set up regional distribution, warehousing, and operations across Latin America and the Caribbean. Banking Deal Watch: Banistmo and Banco La Hipotecaria agreed to start a merger by absorption process, pending approval from Panama’s Superintendency of Banks, aiming to strengthen Banistmo’s mortgage and housing loan portfolio. Shipping Rates Signal Volatility: Global container rate benchmarks show Asia–US East Coast spot pricing growth stalling amid uncertainty over whether capacity will surge again, a key read-through for Panama’s transshipment and logistics demand.

Panama Canal Drought Impact: The canal is set to cut daily transits in September as El Niño-linked dry conditions arrive early, with 34 slots starting Sept. 3 and dropping to 32 from Sept. 15—raising concerns for ship drafts and shipping schedules. Banking Deal in Panama: Banistmo and Banco La Hipotecaria have agreed to a merger by absorption, pending Superintendency of Banks of Panama approval, to strengthen Banistmo’s mortgage and housing-loan portfolio. Investment Migration Demand: Panama’s Qualified Investor Programme is gaining momentum, with real estate demand cited as a key driver. Regional Business Outlook: ECLAC forecasts Panama’s economy to grow around 4.4% in 2026 and 4.6% in 2027, keeping the focus on growth and policy execution. Maritime Trade Pressure: Global container congestion remains elevated, with port waits and schedule disruptions continuing to ripple through trade lanes. Water & Economic Diplomacy: Panama is among countries backing a new Global Ambassadors’ Forum for Water and Economic Diplomacy aimed at mobilizing water investment and cross-border cooperation.

Maritime Congestion Watch: Global container port queues have topped 4.3 million TEU, above the 2022 pandemic peak, as East Asia weather disruptions keep ships out of sequence and pressure freight costs and schedule reliability. Panama Canal & Drought Risk: With El Niño intensifying, Panama has declared a national state of emergency and the Canal is moving toward tighter operating capacity, raising the odds of higher logistics costs and inflationary pressure. Qualified Investor Programme: Panama’s Qualified Investor Programme gained momentum, issuing 268 certificates backed by $113.6m between July 2025 and June 2026, with real estate still the main route. Local Business & Investment Branding: Panama launched a $6.5m, two-year nation branding push (“Panama, host of the world”) aimed at boosting tourism, attracting talent, and driving foreign investment. Trade & Logistics Diplomacy: Panama told Indian firms it can serve as a regional business platform via the Canal, logistics ecosystem, and free zones—positioning the country as a gateway to multiple Latin American markets. Shipping Safety Incident: A Panama-flagged bulk carrier, MV Ocean Winner, sank off India’s Odisha coast; two Chinese survivors were brought to Paradip while 22 crew remain missing.

Panama Canal Water Crunch: The Canal Authority is cutting daily transits for September as El Niño-driven drought tightens freshwater supplies—capacity drops from 36 ships to 34 on Sept. 3, then to 32 on Sept. 15, with draft limits also adjusted; the move is expected to ripple into shipping costs and global logistics. Canal Slot Auctions Get Pricier: Competition for scarce access is spiking auction prices, with SK Gas paying a record $5.3m for an expedited LPG slot—an indicator of how quickly guaranteed passage has become more expensive. El Niño Emergency Response: Panama has declared a national state of emergency tied to El Niño, citing flood impacts since January and warning that rainfall deficits could persist into early 2027, threatening water resources and agriculture. Investor Migration Spotlight: A new ranking of Latin America’s active investment residency programs puts Panama first, highlighting its processing speed, tax attractiveness, and investment flexibility for foreign applicants. Tourism & Investment Branding: Panama launched a $6.5m, two-year “Panama, host of the world” branding push led by Promtur to attract more visitors and foreign investment, aiming for major economic impact. Maritime Transparency Push: Panama is among countries backing the Mombasa Declaration to improve fisheries fleet transparency, while NGOs warn implementation will be the real test.

Panama Canal Drought Shock: SK Gas paid a record $5.3m at auction for an expedited Panama Canal slot on Sept. 1, underscoring how El Niño-driven water limits are tightening access and pushing up transit costs; wait times for unreserved ships can reach 11 days, and the Canal is set to cut daily capacity further from September. Inflation Watch: An economist warns Panama Canal slot reductions will ripple into higher shipping costs and consumer prices across the region, compounding global freight stress. Local Governance & Water Security: Panama’s drought emergency mirrors wider Central America strain as Panama declared a state of emergency over severe drought; separately, Barbados extended St Lucy water rate relief while filtration upgrades lag, highlighting how infrastructure delays can quickly become household cost issues. Business & Finance: Credicorp will hold its 2026 Strategic Update on Nov. 17 (virtual), focusing on maturity, monetization, operating leverage, and how tech and AI support growth. Ports & Logistics: Hanseatic Global Terminals Latin America named a new VP Operations, while Crowley launched a new weekly Port Houston–Central America container service to improve regional supply-chain reliability. Maritime Labor: Seven Indian seafarers repatriated after months stranded in Abu Dhabi, with wage and document-control disputes still under scrutiny.

Panama Canal Auction Fever: A South Korea-based shipper, SK Gas, won a record $5.3 million auction bid for Panama Canal access on Sept. 1, as wait times stretch up to 11 days and the authority tightens slot and cargo limits amid drought fears. Inflation Watch: An economist warns the Canal’s reduced transits will raise shipping costs and feed into higher import prices in the Caribbean, with Jamaica singled out. Maritime Risk Premium: The Strait of Hormuz crisis has logged 68 incidents in six months, killing at least 20 seafarers/port workers, with Panama-flagged ships among the most affected. Global Shipping Squeeze: Port congestion hit a new high, with 4.31 million TEU stranded due to typhoons and schedule disruptions—pushing freight rates higher. Regional Trade Link: Crowley launched a weekly Port Houston–Guatemala/Honduras container service, aiming to cut delays for time-sensitive cargo. AI Books Fallout: Consumer groups urge the FTC to probe claims that AI firms buy, scan, and destroy books, including allegations tied to “Project Panama.”

Panama Canal & Trade Disruptions: El Niño is forcing Panama Canal draft and daily transit cuts, tightening space and pushing up container rates as drought hits the watershed and reshapes global routing. Maritime Security: The IMO says 68 Strait of Hormuz incidents in six months have killed at least 20 seafarers/port workers, with tankers hardest hit; Panama-flagged ships are among the most affected. Panama Legal/Finance: A judge rejected Nadia del Río’s bid to lift seized bank accounts tied to a Comptroller forensic asset audit, keeping precautionary measures active. US Travel Advisory: The U.S. updated its Panama travel advisory (Level 2, increased caution), reiterating no-go areas for the Mosquito Gulf and parts of Darién. Consumer/Tech Policy: U.S. groups urged the FTC to probe AI firms accused of buying, scanning, and destroying books used for training—raising concerns for copyright and access. Local Conservation: Leatherback turtles returned to Panama’s Pacific coast; 178 eggs were laid at El Fondiaderito, with community and authorities protecting nests. Energy/Shipping Markets: Container congestion is above Covid-era levels, removing millions of TEUs from circulation and keeping freight rates elevated.

Panama Canal & Shipping: The Panama Canal Authority has started tightening capacity again, cutting daily transits and delaying draft increases as El Niño-driven drought worsens water levels—raising costs and rerouting pressure on U.S. East and Gulf ports. Trade & Rates: Container markets are reacting: the Platts Container Index jumped to $7,565/FEU, while China port congestion and Panama-related backlogs are keeping vessel supply tight and spot rates elevated. Canal Water Security: The ACP is seeking a project manager for the $1.6B Río Indio reservoir, aimed at securing freshwater for canal operations and drinking water for about 2 million Panamanians. Digital Economy Tax: Panama is debating Bill 30-26 to apply the 7% ITBMS to purchases and services on platforms like Amazon, Temu, Netflix and Airbnb, with officials projecting $100M+ in annual revenue. Environment & Conservation: Leatherback turtles returned to Panama’s Pacific after nearly a decade, with 178 eggs protected at El Fondiaderito near Jaqué. Regional Business Watch: Costa Coffee is launching in Panama via Grupo Maritanos, adding two stores and signaling continued premium retail expansion.

Panama Canal & Shipping Disruptions: NOAA upgraded its El Niño outlook, raising the odds of a very strong event in late 2026–2027 and worsening expectations for Panama Canal water levels; multiple reports say the canal is set to cut daily ship transits and tighten draft limits, while transpacific container rates keep climbing as carriers manage capacity. Maritime Safety (Panama-flagged vessel): A Panama-flagged bulk carrier, MV Ocean Winner, sank in India’s Bay of Bengal with 24 crew; two Chinese sailors were rescued and 22 remain missing as search efforts expand. Trade & Logistics Costs: Container freight rates rose on port congestion and geopolitical tensions, with Asia–US lanes seeing higher costs and more Panama Canal surcharges flagged for September. US–China Tensions in Latin America: US and China diplomats traded accusations over alleged espionage risks from Chinese tech firms, with Panama mentioned as the US embassy shared the warning. Agribusiness & Prices: The US plans a phased reopening of a Mexico cattle border crossing in Arizona to ease record beef prices, but economists doubt it will quickly lower what shoppers pay. Local Business & Infrastructure: Panama’s Puerto Armuelles multipurpose dock project hit 72% progress, moving into redesign planning to boost capacity for western-region trade.

Strait of Hormuz Watch: Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has surged nearly 400% over two weeks as ships increasingly route via a US-backed corridor near Oman, with about 200 ships passing last week and total traffic back to roughly 20% of pre-war levels. Maritime Safety: India’s Coast Guard and Navy are still searching for 22 missing crew after a Panama-flagged bulk carrier, MV Ocean Winner, sank in the Bay of Bengal; two survivors were rescued and are receiving medical care. Canal Capacity Pressure: El Niño-linked drought is forcing the Panama Canal to cut daily transits in September, with plans to prioritize larger vessels as freshwater levels constrain lock operations. Shipping Costs: Transpacific container rates edged higher as carriers tighten capacity, while Panama Canal surcharges are set to add extra pressure on Asia–US routes. Local Business & Infrastructure: Panama’s Puerto Armuelles port project is 72% complete and moving toward a multipurpose redesign, with IDB support shaping the next phase. Agribusiness: Coclé producers are expanding commercial mangosteen cultivation, aiming to scale output and secure buyers. Regional Outlook: ECLAC held Latin America’s 2026 growth forecast at 2.2%, warning it’s too weak to lift living standards. Public Finance: The Presidency’s 2027 budget is set at about $246.5M, including $70M for investments tied to facilities, equipment, and logistics support. Trade Diplomacy: India’s commerce secretary plans a Latin America trip to advance talks with Brazil and Argentina on expanding the India–MERCOSUR preferential trade framework.

Maritime Safety: India’s Coast Guard and Navy are still searching the Bay of Bengal after the Panama-flagged MV Ocean-Winner sank off Odisha, with 24 crew aboard; two Chinese sailors were rescued from liferafts and 22 remain missing, including 18 Chinese, three Myanmar nationals and one Bangladeshi, after the ship began listing and went down within about eight minutes. Trade & Logistics: The Panama Canal is facing El Niño-driven water shortages, with reports saying daily transits will be cut (mid-September targets cited as 32 vs 36 now) and Neopanamax draft limits tightened, raising pressure on shipping schedules and routing. Energy Shipping: Strait of Hormuz traffic has surged nearly 400% as more vessels use a US-backed Oman corridor, with analysts saying Iran’s control is weakening and many tankers are “going dark” or rerouting. Local Environment: In Chiriquí’s Tierras Altas, MiAMBIENTE launched a technical committee for Paso Ancho inside Volcán Barú National Park to assess housing, land use, water and security needs while addressing long-running occupation issues.

Maritime Incident: A Panama-flagged bulk carrier, MV Ocean Winner, sank in the Bay of Bengal about 240 nautical miles off Odisha after losing contact; Indian Coast Guard ships recovered two survivors and are searching for 22 more crew (24 total, including 20 Chinese, three from Myanmar and one Bangladeshi). Panama Economy: ECLAC projects Panama growth at 4.4% in 2026 and 4.6% in 2027, outpacing Central America’s slower recovery. Environment & Mining Oversight: MiAmbiente is inspecting the closed Cobre Panamá project, citing non-compliance tied to reforestation and ecological restoration obligations and monitoring areas beyond the permitted footprint. Trade & Shipping Costs: Transpacific container rates rose about 4% as carriers tighten capacity, with shippers facing higher costs amid Panama Canal surcharge moves. AI & Competition: A U.S. FTC probe is urged over claims that major AI firms buy and physically destroy books to train models, raising concerns about competition and access. Cybersecurity: New banking trojans targeting users worldwide were highlighted, including malware focused on Latin America.

Panama Canal Capacity Crunch: The Panama Canal will cut daily transits again as El Niño-driven drought tightens watershed conditions, dropping total passages from 36 to 34 starting Sept. 4 and then to 32 on Sept. 15, with Neopanamax slots set at 9 and Panamax at 25 (then 23), plus draft limits adjusted to protect reliability. Port & Trade Ripples: With the canal tightening, shippers are already rerouting and rebalancing flows; the Port of Los Angeles is preparing for a potential cargo uptick as Panama and Red Sea constraints push more business toward West Coast gateways. Regional Growth Watch: ECLAC projects the Dominican Republic will grow 4% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027, while noting a tougher global backdrop for Latin America and the Caribbean. Security & Crime: Panama prosecutors handed prison terms up to 18 years in “Operation Fusion” for drug and money laundering linked to Tocumen Airport, and police recovered stolen telecom backup batteries and phones in Panama Oeste. Cyber Threats: Banking trojans including Manic and Grandoreiro are in the spotlight, with reported targeting of users across Latin America and beyond.

Panama Canal Drought Cuts Capacity: The ACP says El Niño-linked watershed shortfalls will force tighter transit limits, with daily slots dropping from 36 to 34 starting Sept. 4, then to 32 from Sept. 15, alongside Neopanamax and Panamax slot reductions and draft-rule adjustments. Shipping & Costs Ripple: With fewer Panama Canal passages, carriers are rerouting and shippers are bracing for higher freight and new surcharges, while West Coast ports like Los Angeles prepare for cargo shifts. Port & Logistics Moves: Crowley announced a new weekly container service linking Port Houston with Santo Tomás de Castilla (Guatemala) and Puerto Cortés (Honduras), positioning Panama-linked supply chains for more direct Gulf access. Panama Courts Drug Case: Panama’s Oral Trial Court handed prison terms up to 18 years in “Operation Fusion,” tied to drug trafficking and money laundering via Tocumen International Airport. Trade/Investment Tension: CK Hutchison’s $1.5bn arbitration push over Panama port terminal compensation remains a live investor-watch item. US Policy Watch: A coalition urged the FTC to investigate AI firms “hoard and destroy” book-scanning practices, raising competition and market-access concerns.

Panama Canal Water Crunch: The Panama Canal Authority says El Niño drought will cut daily transits from Sept. 3 (36→34) and again from Sept. 15 (34→32), with tighter draft limits already in place—raising the odds of longer waits and higher logistics costs. Port & Investment Shock: CK Hutchison has launched a fresh international arbitration against Panama, seeking over $1.5bn after the state seized Balboa and Cristóbal terminals, escalating a dispute from commercial terms into investment-treaty claims. Shipping Costs Watch: Drewry’s World Container Index rose 4% as Transpacific rates firmed and capacity tightened; the Canal’s new surcharges and reduced slots could add upward pressure. Regional Growth Update: ECLAC trimmed its 2026 forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean to 2.2%, citing tougher external conditions and weaker momentum. Security Cooperation: The US and Jamaica signed a Status of Forces Agreement to bolster joint action against criminal gangs and narco-terrorists. Tech & Trade: Crowley announced a new weekly container service linking Houston with Guatemala and Honduras, aiming to speed Central America-US supply chains. Business Governance: Panama’s Assembly committee approved B/.40m+ in MINGOB budget transfers. AI & Books Market: Reports say booksellers are seeing irregular bulk orders that may be tied to AI training and “destructive scanning,” with Panama mentioned via a “Project Panama” reference. El Niño Basics: Coverage explains what El Niño is, why this one may be unusually strong, and how it can reshape global weather and economies.

Canal Drought Cuts Capacity: The Panama Canal Authority will cap daily transits from early September as El Niño worsens drought—34 ships from Sept. 4, then 32 from Sept. 15—after rainfall and watershed inflows fell well below average, with draft limits already in place. Port Dispute Escalates: Hong Kong’s CK Hutchison says Panama’s seizure of Balboa and Cristóbal ports has triggered a treaty breach and has launched arbitration seeking more than $1.5 billion in damages, arguing the move targeted decades-old concessions. Digital Tax Push: Panama expects to collect over $100 million a year by applying a 7% ITBMS transfer tax mechanism to purchases and services sold through digital platforms like Amazon, Temu and Netflix, aiming to close a legal gap for e-commerce. Shipping Costs & Workarounds: With canal congestion and higher fees, traders are shifting logistics—such as ship-to-ship LPG transfers at Balboa—to keep energy flows moving, while container rates on key routes remain firm. Regional Weather Watch: Panama’s meteorology service issued warnings tied to Tropical Wave #34, urging precautions for flooding-prone areas as conditions could still trigger downpours and thunderstorms.